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** This is an archived, static copy of the Casebook messages boards dating from 1998 to 2003. These threads cannot be replied to here. If you want to participate in our current forums please go to https://forum.casebook.org **
NOT JUST A NUMBERS GAME
Casebook Message Boards: Ripper Suspects: General Discussion :
NOT JUST A NUMBERS GAME
Author: richard nunweek
Saturday, 11 January 2003 - 02:21 pm |        | HI EVERYONE
i hope this will prove of intrest to a great many of the readers of these boards . since the early seventies i always believed that the number 39 had great significance to these series of murders other people have also felt this too. but everytime the subject is brought up people say ;not the numbers game again . i am a gambler and odds and percentages are very important.and i have always thought the odds were huge if there was no significance.
to gain credit one had to have more proof then just assuming it has significance ,such as a form of correspondence from jack mentioning the number 39. until this weekend i had not seen one even tho i had been intrested in this subject for some
45 years. then along comes p cornwalls portrait of a killer with one such peice of evidence . for those who have read this shall we say ; intresting book on page 180 picture 2 is a telegram from a person who implies he is the killer stating just that. briefly for those who have not read this book . the telegram is addressed to inspector abberline stating that he wished to give himself up , and he could be found at 39 cutler street . question why no 39 ? why not no 5 , 8 ,10, 21 ,36 ,1 , etc just another coincedence i suppose.
most signicant of all was he mentioned kelly ,and long liz. long liz was the name that everybody knew stride as in the area. TODAY I HAVE REALIZED SOMETHING THAT NOBODY HAS EVER THOUGHT BEFORE WHAT HAS . TABRAM, NICHOLS,CHAPMAN ,LONG LIZ, EDDOWES,KELLY , got in common . yes they were all shall we say unfortunates , but most significantly their names all add up to 39. IF THIS IS NOT JUST AS PEOPLE WILL PUT IT ANOTHER COINCEDENCE, it could lead to a very dramatic resuffle in this case , if 39 represented his victims ,it would suggest to me that this was not a serial killer, nor a opportunist killer , but a cunning premeditated murderer who stalked these women either because of personal revenge, or a contract killer would be the modern day alternative. i hear almost alarm bells , mayby the conspiracy theory , or leonard matters dr stanley is not so far fetched after all. anybody reading this must at least think it is worthy of merit. regards richard. |
Author: chris scott
Saturday, 11 January 2003 - 04:50 pm | | Hi Richard
I must admit that I am very wary of any "proof" or theory based on juggling numbers or letters e.g. numerology, anagrams etc. It also worries me when people become convinced that something is ther key to the solution and then go looking for evidence to support. You say "i always believed that the number 39 had great significance to these series of murders" but on what basis? Of course among the plethora of evidence we can choose almost any number and it will occur somewhere in the evidence? Just to quote another instance: Annie Chapman was found in the yard of 29 and habitually slept in bed 29 in the doss house she used. But I dont beleieve this has any significance. If you take all the documentary evidence available and the amount of that which would be numeric - addresses, ages, police badge numbers, dates etc - then almost any number would be bound to occur.
As I said any solution which lights on the key to the proof first and then goes seeking evidence for it is in my opinion weakened. This is my main criticism of the Cornwell book. She lights on Sickert as a suspect and then seeks out evidence to condemn him. To me the only way is to examine ALL of the evidence and see where it leads, not decide where you want the evidence to go and then select it accordingly.
You say the names of the victims "add up" to 39. I assume you mean using some system of numerology - in which case, which one? I also notice in the name of Stride you quote her nickname - was this the way you arrived at 39 in which case why not used the nicknames of the others where they had them?
Id be interested to see how you arrived at the figures you quote
Thanks for an interesting post
Chris Scott |
Author: Dan Norder
Saturday, 11 January 2003 - 06:11 pm | | Considering the huge number of variant names each of the victims had I don't doubt that they could all be added up to other numbers as well, if one were purposely looking for that number.
Dan
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Author: Garry Ross
Saturday, 11 January 2003 - 07:16 pm | | Richard,
To get to that number would also imply that the 'Ripper' knew each victim pretty well too or he was going up to them and asking how many letters they had in their surname...ie: "Your name is Templeton? Curse it...I need 5 letters, know any Smiths or Browns round here? A Kelly would do"
Another thing to check is vowels...the only one not used in the names is 'U'- and we know what that means..."The U's are the men...." etc etc 
I wouldn't read too much into adding up letters in names etc - if he asked their names they probably never gave their real names anyway, they would probably say "What would you like me to be called my dearie?"
Although with numbers in mind,I've always had a weird fascination with 40 Berner Street and its occupants. (nothing perverted though, honest )
take care
Garry |
Author: Philip Rayner
Sunday, 12 January 2003 - 06:54 am | | You can find coincidences in anything, if you take the height of the great pyramid, divide it by half the length of the left hand side and add the age of Achmed the mad (Camel supplier to the cognisenti.) you get the weight of a small orange, or something like that.
IMHO the case is much simpler than that. The calculations are forced to say the last. |
Author: richard nunweek
Sunday, 12 January 2003 - 08:33 am | | HELLO EVERYONE
i am sorry that you all have got the impression that i think i have solved this mystery from a series of numbers. the basic number 39 comes from for those of you that may not be aware is as followes . martha tabram stabbed 39 times, polly nicholls slain 31st aug, annie chapman 8th sept,= 39 stride + eddowes killed 30th sept, kelly 9th nov = 39 they are the basics. if you wanted you could also add tabram aged 39 . barnett agreeing to live with kelly 9th april 87, leaving her 30th oct 88=39 also the biggest coincedence of all found 26 dorset street in room 13=39 .i realize that you can find numbers from anywhere its like fiddling statistics to suit . but the dates of the murders when they are so similar should be taken seriously. the dispute about my using elizabeth strides nickname is simply the writer of the telegram sent to abberline uses it after all he is claiming to be the killer ,and stride was known only by the mane of long liz in the neighbourhood only the swedish church was familiar with her actual name . my point is and this is pure speculation . if the killer was after these six women for personal revenge or more likely was given the name of six women to slaughter he would have the names of tabram , nicholls , chapman , the woman known as long liz, eddowes, and kelly .if these women were done to death for a very good reason ,the killer would have more to go on then six nicknames , the writer of the telegram obviously new her only by long liz,thus he mentioning her by that name. finally i am extremely keen on this subject amongst thousands of others ; and i try to find intresting and varied possible solutions with some kind of evidence attached even tho sometimes circumstancial, i still find the names of the six victims when adding the number of letters up totalling 39 fascinating . hopefully i have been more clearer in this correspondence then the original . regards richard. |
Author: chris scott
Sunday, 12 January 2003 - 10:26 am | | Hi Richard
Interesting the way you get to the numbers and apologies that I assumed it was numerology based on the names
As regards the dates, I can see how you get to 39 for Nichols (day 31 of month 8 31+8) and for the double event (day 30 of month 9 30+9) but how do you get the figure for Chapman (day 8 of month 9) or Kelly (day 9 of month 11)
Regards
Chris Scott |
Author: Stan Russo
Sunday, 12 January 2003 - 01:05 pm | | Richard,
Here's another 39 for you.
39 days between the double murder and the November 9th murder.
STAN |
Author: richard nunweek
Monday, 13 January 2003 - 07:08 am | | HI CHRIS AND STAN.
chris. i am not arriving at the numbers by month + date although 31st of 8th month +30th of 9th month= 39 also stan i was aware of the 39 days elapsing between the double murder and kellys.honestly just forgot that one.
my arrival at this was simply 31st day +8th day and 30th day + 9th day . the fact is i am not trying to make things fit just remarking how the number 39 seems to figure i think significantly.there was a theory some years back that this was a symbol of the occult 13x3 thirteen being the luckiest number and 3 the most favoured number . i am not an expert in black magic so i cant express an opinion on that one seems possible. i dont know if you two guys have read the latest offering from p. cornwall .but if you have the book look at the reproduced telegram on page 180 picture 2 , you will see that this person claiming to be the killer writes the no 39 in a rather strange way , it looks like he was at first going to write the number 3 and then puts in a rather elaborate 9 , mayby to fund his sence of humour . also intrestingly he mentions kelly, and long liz [his words] but not eddowes he mentions these names in reference to writing in blood saying long liz blood has been used up .surely he is not impling he didnt kill her . this i doubt or have we all got it the wrong way round ie ; someone else killed eddowes lets face it the discriptions of people seen in berner street and mitre square rather good discription by lawende are vastly different, of course he could have done a quick change , which i would doubt. so to finalize my theory on this matter is the number 39, is significant to jack for reasons we do not know but hopefully we will in the future. thought i found a real stunner yesterday regarding the goulston street grafiti if only he had wrote . the jews are the men not to be blamed for nothing . instead of what is implied he wrote . we would have yet another 39 oh well mayby they [the police] copied it down wrong . there does seem a dispute on actual wording regards richard |
Author: Bob Hinton
Saturday, 18 January 2003 - 11:54 pm | | Dear Everyone,
When looking at coincidences you must always take into account the odds against the event being pure chance. For example much is made of the dates adding up to 39, but what are the odds of this happening by chance?
What you are looking at is two numbers -in this case a 30 and a 9 ( its exactly the same for and two dates that add up to 39)
So what are the chances of the number 30 turning up by accident? Well in a 30 day month 30 to 1 in a 31 day month 31 to 1. Not very big odds are they? Now let us see what the odds are for the number 30 turning up and the number 9. Let us assume a 30 day month.
First off you have 30 to 1 against for the 30, and for the nine. Thats a bit more complicated as the odds are now for picking a particular number matched with the 30, in this case 9. The odds in this case are 30 x 30 to 1 against which equals 900 to 1 against. Fairly long odds, but hang on here we are not concerned with two precise numbers just two numbers that add up to 39.
Which could be 20 and 19, 21 and 18, 22 and 17 and so on through all the combinations, which are enormous. You must then take all these combination odds away from the 900 to 1 against.
I'm not going to work that out but you will probably find the true odds end up as somewhere about 50 to 1 against - not very long odds at all!
If you really want to look at the longest long shot of all time - consider this. 2,000 years ago Mr A walked around a corner and bumped into Miss B. They married and their child one day bumped into someone elses child and so on. Now just consider if Mr A hadn't walked that route he would never have met Miss B, or if he was two seconds late, or she was one second early. Now all the way down through history these phenominal coincidences occured, each one more outlandish than the other.
And then one day your father met your mother. What are the odds of that happening? Multiply every grain of sand on earth by every star in the universe to the power of a billion and you get the idea of what a long shot it is that you were born.
Yet you're reading this - aren't you?
I am hoping to write some articles in the not too distant future about Coincidence, Statistics and Odds against in the Random Placement of Murder Victims. I have been doing some initial work already on random placement and the results are quite interesting.
all the best
Bob Hinton |
Author: richard nunweek
Sunday, 19 January 2003 - 09:57 am | | HI BOB.
i still think that the statistics of 39 are still high considering there are only 3 sets of events .ie; 39 stab wounds on tabram. nichols and chapmans dates , and double event date + kellys. one stab wound less or one day short would cancel out this sequence. if you take the fact that tabram was aged 39 years, and that kelly lived at 26 dorset street room 13, that would increase the odds . good luck bob on your work on statistics and odds,i might start on it myself this afternoon only the sunday lunchtime pint would numb the old brain cells. i feel that there has to be a ceiling on coincedences, and when that is reached ,we can start to accept possibility. regards richard. |
Author: Eduardo Zinna
Sunday, 19 January 2003 - 07:33 pm | | | Jack Benny was 39. |
Author: Dan Norder
Monday, 20 January 2003 - 05:52 am | | Regarding 39 wounds on Tabram: I'm not sure that they can guarantee that the count is right. Unless they are very carefully spaced, wounds could be very easily miscounted.
Concerning dates of the murders, it is highly likely that the dates were chosen because they were on weekends/holidays. Thus we aren't talking about the odds of any two random dates adding up to the same number, but the odds of weekend-only dates adding up to the same number. Those odds are much higher, as it throws out more than half of the possible dates.
Dan
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Author: richard nunweek
Monday, 20 January 2003 - 07:15 am | | regarding the 39 stab wounds on tabram , the count could have well been wrong , but surely if the murderer was doing this on purpose he would have spaced out the wounds . i realize that they could have been chosen because of weekends which would cut the odds but what are the odds for the no 39 figuring in such a lot of circumstances .
a few more to ponder . ada wilson was reported to be 39 . the 8th month 31st day, the 9th month 30th day, tabram ,nichols,chapman, long liz; eddowes, kelly, their surnames add up to 39 [i am not trying to cheat by refering to stride as long liz she was refered to by that name in a telegram sent to abberline 21st nov 88 and she was known in the area by that name] also barnets decision to settle with kelly 9th april 87 , and his decision to leave her 30th oct 88. 39 days elapsing since eddowes death and kellys fate. so if you take all the coincedences [even the 39th psalm could have significance if one reads it in a modern form ] surely you can not blame me for feeling the 39 could be significant in some form. regards richard |
Author: Brian Schoeneman
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 12:00 am | | Richard,
No offense, but all of this counting is making me dizzy.
There are two answers as to why Tabram was stabbed 39 times. Which is simpler?
1.) The killer devised all of these interesting number theories and stabbed Tabram 39 times specifically to be able to kill all the other victims on his list that all happen to have random occurances of numbers that could equal or be related to 39 somehow.
2.) The killer stabbed Tabram 39 times because he wanted her dead, and wasn't counting.
I'd say #2. Because if #1 were true, and there were plans, and he'd figured all this out in advance, including the number theory, etc. there would be a greater probability of him screwing up and making a mistake somewhere. Nobody is perfect.
And nobody is that lucky. As they say, no battle plan ever survives first contact with the enemy.
Occam's razor is frequently touted by us on the boards, and there's a good reason for it: it's pretty much always right.
B |
Author: richard nunweek
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 07:17 am | | HI BRIAN
sorry to make you dizzy.
my theory is most certainly no1. i believe the killer was a cool calculating individual, who planned these murders in absolute detail ,that would have been the thrill he received .
yes he was lucky that has never been disputed , if he had not been cunning and devious he would not be a legend like he is till this day . are you sitting down brian ; what about the 39 steps? sorry. regards richard |
Author: Chris Hintzen
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 07:51 am | | Hi Richard,
I have some questions regarding the 39 theory.
1.) Why didn't the killer continue to stab the women 39 times? I mean, it worked. No sound was heard with Tabram. He got away free and clear. So if 39 had such a meaning to him then why didn't he continue to display that?
2.) Why does the Ripper cut the women's throats? Most of the women were strangled before their throats were cut. Meaning, there was no need to do it, unless it served some purpose in his mind. Why do it, and how does this correalate with the number 39?
3.) Why didn't the killer continue to kill until he had 39 victims? And if he was incarcerated, wouldn't his number obsession be recognized?(The 39 theory seems to be an Obsessive Compulsive habit.)
4.) What if Tabram wasn't killed by the same killer? Wouldn't this mean that the 39 theory falls apart?
5.) What about the break inbetween Tabram and Nichols? It's not a 39 day space, nor does adding the days together(7th of August and 31st of August) equal 39. Or what about the break between Chapman and the Double Event?(8th September and 30th September.) How do you explain this break in the pattern?
6.) Why would ONLY Kelly be killed at a 39, and not any of the others? All the Ripper had to do was go a block further with Annie Chapman, a few doors down with Stride, a couple blocks for both Polly Nichols and Eddowes, and further up the staircase with Marth Tabram. So why wouldn't he do this?
7.) How do you explain the 3 to 4 cuts on the right side of Nichols abdomen? It's not 39, nor is it a carving made for the number 39. So why the difference in the number scheme again?
Regards,
Chris H. |
Author: richard nunweek
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 10:00 am | | HI CHRIS.
good grief
you have set me a task here,to start with i am not saying that the ripper would set his entire life around 39. imagine 39 eggs for breakfast, 39 slices of toast.
to start with tabram ,which of course i am convinced was the start of this series of murders,she was stabbed 39 times simply because this was start of the cycle.the other murders the dates simply was the motive.this is rather complicated to explain even i am confused.mayby he had intended to kill on the last day of the month 31st aug, and started his count from the day after tabram the 8th. then when he had killed chapman on the 8th sept,he mistakenly thought there was 31 days in sept therefore kelly may have been planned for the 8th nov. but because he killed eddowes on the 30th sept it then had to be the 9th.
HELP.
to sum up my brains hurting,he started his series of murders with tabram 39 stab wounds was evident. he planned a killing for the last day of aug, and started his count from the 8th aug. he killed chapman 8th sept, thinking 31 sept was the last day planning to kill kelly on the 8th nov . but because of his error killed her on the 9th to fullfill the cycle. i believe the cycle ended with mary kelly. why is the question? i know this seems like i am trying to fit the puzzle anyhow but it is possible that he assumed the last day of sept was 31st. mayby thats why he killed twice that night one for the 30th and one for the 31st
chris , i am now going to grap a beer out of the fridge .
regards richard |
Author: Dan Norder
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 10:29 am | | 
Dan
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Author: richard nunweek
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 11:11 am | | nice one dan.
its a pity that the film was not released 50 years earlier, then that would obviously be where the ripper got his fascination from.
regards richard. |
Author: Dan Norder
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 12:25 pm | | Ah, but, you see, Richard, since you dont believe in numerical coincidences, obviously the name of this movie (and the 1914 novel it was based on) is extremely important to the Ripper case. The 39 Steps was a spy organization sneaking secrets out of England... hrm, highly significant.
Just for kicks I went back to the names of ripper victims... I can't for the life of me figure out how you think they add up to 39. When I do the typical conversion, Eddowes adds up to 75, which is not 39 nor divisible by 39. Kelly adds up to 65. Tabram is 55. I'm not bothering to do the rest.
You should rent the movie though. It's entertaining. I bet you can find lots more 39s in it if you look hard enough.
Dan
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Author: richard nunweek
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 12:50 pm | | hi dan
i am slightly confused by your remarks.
i do believe in numerical coincidences to a point my reference to the 39 steps was purely tonque in cheek.i have seen the film several times a first class thriller it certainly is.
as for not understanding the number 39 in connection with the victims ,i think we are on the wrong channel
let me explain if you take the surname tabram +nichols +chapman +long liz + eddowes + kelly and you add up the letters that is where the 39 comes from .as i have explained before i have used the name of long liz[not stride ]because that is what she was known as in whitechapel at the time and that a telegram to abberline on the 21st nov 88 refers to her by that name. i am not a person who is desperately trying to find the number 39 no matter what .
i just try to seek a possible reason for a number to crop up in this case so frequently
regards richard |
Author: Brian Schoeneman
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 01:17 pm | | Richard,
There are many possible reasons why 39 shows up so much in the case.
But the only probable one is pure coincidence.
B |
Author: Dan Norder
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 01:24 pm | | So you aren't using numerology or alphanumerics or anything to take the victim names and get 39, just the total number of letters in all their last names together, except for faking and not using Stride's last name and using her nickname and first name?
Groan.
The number isn't cropping up by itself, you are inventing it. If I wanted to I could add up the victim's last names the right way, get a different number, and then play silly tricks to make other facts of the case fit that number. That wouldn't prove anything about Jack.
Dan
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Author: Philip Rayner
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 03:48 pm | | Dan chalk this one up mate.
I totally and utterly agree with your post. The 39 theory is like the Royal Ripper theory. Simply looking for mysticism where there is none. The Royal theory is looking for conspiracy where there is none.
I try to understand everyone's point of view but the strangled logic here is beyond understanding. It's reverse engineering, take an idea and then make everything else fit. It's not even sure Stride was a victim. Same with Tabram. What if one of the wounds (or more) were two stabs that happened to land in the same place. The throat would make 40 anyway. Why do we (Specially in this day and age.) Have a problem with the idea of a simple homicidal maniac. The idea of violating and mutilating his victims was the thrill, not trying to work out a tortuous system based on numbers.
It's a house of cards, lose one and the whole thing comes tumbling down. |
Author: Scott E. Medine
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 03:54 pm | | Richard,
I have noticed a numerical pattern in the killings, but it is not 39.
Peace,
Scott |
Author: Dan Norder
Tuesday, 21 January 2003 - 05:43 pm | | Scott's post focusing on the number 38 can be found here. Discussion follows below that.
I didn't find those arguments for a possible numerical significance much stronger than the current ones. But then maybe when Scott's book comes out he will explain it more.
Dan
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