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Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 12
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, August 06, 2003 - 11:43 pm: |       |
Gary - All good points. Apparently motiveless killings are especially difficult to detect even today. If we assumed there is good evidence this the most likely reason JtR escaped arrest. Any thoughts on who this eliminates and who it tends to put in the frame?
Robert - will include this factor below
Dan - making predictive or deductive assumptions about any form of human behavior is indeed problematic. Assumptions that this series of killings begins and ends with the canonical five without compelling evidence is one of the reasons I started this thread. Anyone proposing a candidate for JtR needs to answer these questions (or form some view on them):
- did he continue killing after Kelly (if a
JtR kill)
- if not why
- in either case why was he not identified,
arrest and/or tried
Randy - this is my point; particular combinations of factors point to or tend to negate suspects. Your suspect would have to be someone concerned about the consequences of capture, not incarcerated or remaining in Whitechapel; negates Druitt, Kosminski etc.
Fascinating Diana - shows we shouldn't assume that those with mental disorder aren't capable of avoiding risk of being caught.
Amended list of reasons no one was tried for Whitechapel murders.
A1. Such a killer was virtually uncatchable by police methods at the time
A2. Some mistakes by police
A3. Conspiracy by police and/or government
A4. Police knew identity but lacked evidence
A5. Risk mitigation by killer in planning and executing murders (meticulous planning and/or street cunning)
A6. Luck
A7. Continued killing (not linked to JtR)
Reasons he stopped killing (linked to above reasons but not inextricably):
B1. Incarcerated - prison
B2. Incarcerated - asylum
B3. Incarcerated - other institution
B4. Died
B5. Voluntarily ceased
1- warned off by relative/police
2- psychological condition improved (treatment
or spontaneous)
3- motive no longer in place
4- risk became more than reward
5- other
B6. Geography (no longer in Whitechapel)
1- employment, eg. sailor
2- moved away for other reason
3- did not live in Whitechapel and prevented
from returning
4- continued killing elsewhere
B7. Disabled through illness, accident etc.
Suspect Matrix
U = unlikely or no evidence available
N = neutral
L = likely - evidence indicates this
Y = accepted as true
X = accepted as not true
? = unknown
Barnett Druitt Tumblety
A1 U L U
A2 N N N
A3 U X U
A4 N L L
A5 U L U
A6 L N L
A7 U X N
B1 X X ?
B2 X X X
B3 X X X
B4 X Y X
B5.1 N X U
B5.2 X X ?
B5.3 Y X ?
B5.4 L X ?
B5.5 N X ?
B6.1 X X U
B6.2 X X N
B6.3 X X L
B6.4 X X L
B7 X X L
I can't do a table in this but you get the idea.These are just my suggestions. If fully completed this will at least point to gaps in the current evidence for why we are still discussing this.
Neale
|
Christopher Lowe
Unregistered guest
| | Posted on Sunday, August 31, 2003 - 6:20 am: | |
As far as I can see the reason jtr escaped detection is that his crimes were GUBU as far
as the police were concerned. They lacked experience. |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 18
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 12:41 am: | |
Christopher,
Sorry, not sure what you mean by GUBU. They certainly did lack experience in investigating serial killings.
Neale |
Randy Scholl
Unregistered guest
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 6:10 am: | |
Amazing what a websearch can turn up. Apparently GUBU means "grotesque, unbelievable, bizarre and unprecedented" |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 155
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 02, 2003 - 1:13 pm: | |
Hi Neale,
Quite an impressive list, and -- I might add -- very useful indeed, although I prefer not to search for a specific suspect.
Firstly, you say:
"...making predictive or deductive assumptions about any form of human behavior is indeed problematic."
Well, I would say it's not more problematic than any other method in this case, and certainly not more problematic than deducting from unverified and inconclusive or lacking "facts", which has been done too much in this context.
Although a serial killer can't be regarded as acting after a certain type model or scheme, strictly speaking, there are certain interesting patterns of a serial killer -- learnt form earlier experiences -- that in most cases can be detected and applied on other situations. I most certainly feel that studying the the killer's behaviour ans psycology is one of our best tools to a better understanding of the events in question, whether one considers criminal psycology and profiling trustworthy enough or not. We simply don't have enough facts to deduct from anything else, and as experience will tell us, witness statements should be taken very lightly as far as reliability is concerned.
"Assumptions that this series of killings begins and ends with the canonical five without compelling evidence is one of the reasons I started this thread." [my bold formatting]
Noone can deliver "evidence" of anything in such old cases as this, Neale. If you demand that, then I'm afraid all discussions on this subject becomes totally impossible. One can only put forward more or less unthinkable theories, based on personal interpretations of facts and common sense, that we have to accept, whether we like it or not.
Now, some comments in connection with your lists (which only reveals my own personal views and nothing else):
Amended list of reasons no one was tried for Whitechapel murders:
I actually believe it to be a combination of A1 and A6. A4 is indeed intriguing, but we have no real indications on that the police knew the identity of JtR.
Reasons he stopped killing (linked to above reasons but not inextricably):
Here I can think of a lot of equally important alternatives, but to me the most likely ones are B1, B2, B3, B6:1,4 (although with great doubt) and maybe B7.
B5 (voluntarily ceased) I find totally unacceptable -- I know I'll get shredded for this by some, but even if one can find examples of this in the history of serial killers, such behaviour can't be proven , due to the fact that these indivudals in such a case most likely never were captured and therefore we can't say if they stopped on their own decision, or died or moved way). A serial killer like Jack the Ripper, with that kind of accelerating frenzy is not likely to just stop by his own free will or take a lengthy break. Such murder spree are a result of a compulsive behaviour, and therefore I feel death (although probably not suicide), physical illness/disability or incarceration the most probable easons for why the killings stopped. That is also why I believe Mary Kelly (if she was a Riper victim) to be the last one -- Coles and Mackenzie I wouldn't tribute to Jack the Ripper -- a serial killer can make certain changes in his MO, but generally speaking he's hardly going to decrease the rage in his attack, which would be the result in that case. I'm sure it has happened and examples of this can be found, but it is highly unusual and doesen't add up psycologically.
I prefer not to point out any special suspect, though. I don't believe either Druitt, Barnett or Tumblety to be any likely candidates anyway, and I'm not even sure Jack the Ripper was identical with any of the now known suspects.
All the best
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 19
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, September 07, 2003 - 11:09 pm: | |
G'day Glenn,
In saying that behaviour modelling is problematic I'm not contending it isn't valuable or worth doing, just that it needs to be used in context and any claimed outcomes need to be weighed against any other evidence or information.
I'm not advocating that this matrix will assist in selecting any particular candidate. It does indicate some points which should should be present in any theory relating to a suspect. Usually these issues relating to how he escaped detection are present in a theory but sometimes as an an afterthought or by-product. This just attempts to formalise it and suggests some rigour be used in explaining how any suspect escaped and continued to escape detection. We can speculate endlessly about why he did it (and should continue doing so) but a solid argument about how he got away with it must be present.
I also think it might be A1 and A6 with a dash of B6 and a soupcon of A5 (street or rat cunning).
BTW congratulations on your Inspectorship. Do we need to call you "Sir" now.
You Most Humble & Obedient Servant........ |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 20
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, September 07, 2003 - 11:22 pm: | |
Glenn,
By way of a general question, what percentage of serial killers would escape detection.
Obviously we'll never know for certain but would police attribute some unsolved murders and missing persons to an estimated number of killers?
Neale |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 199
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Monday, September 08, 2003 - 1:38 am: | |
Hello Neal,
"In saying that behaviour modelling is problematic I'm not contending it isn't valuable or worth doing, just that it needs to be used in context and any claimed outcomes need to be weighed against any other evidence or information."
Absolutely. Then we agree. I think one should see these methods as a complement, not as a solitary solution. I just feel that profiling and psycological behavouring studies are especially valuable in such old cases like the Ripper murders, where files and other material containing facts are fragmatic and inconsistent.
I do think your matrix is very usual, Neale. I think it helps the researcher to get an over-view over the facts, and that is helpful indeed as a tool for analysing.
Regarding your question; I wish I knew, Neale. I believe, and so does a number of criminologists and people in the force, that we have a lot of serial killers running around, that we don't know of -- surely some of the numerous, unsolved missing person cases could be attributed to those. I've seen a number somewhere on percentage of estimated unknown, undetected serial killers compared to the population (although it was only American figures, I think), but I can't recall it for the moment -- I have to get back to you on that. I think FBI has done such calculations.
"BTW congratulations on your Inspectorship. Do we need to call you "Sir" now."
Thank you, thank you, Neal.
No, not necessary at all. I'm still the same old drinking buddy.
But I've got some boots that needs to be polished... 
All the best, Neale
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 21
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Monday, September 08, 2003 - 10:43 pm: | |
Yes Glenn,
I think we are pretty much in agreement. Could you direct me some cases where profiling has been successfully used and/or some good reference texts - I am interested to learn further about this.
As for your boots, I don't think even Abberline would have had a sergeant do that for him.
Regards
Neale
|
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 214
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, September 09, 2003 - 4:44 pm: | |
Hi Neale. Nice talking to you again.
OK. I'll get back to you about it later. I'm just doing simpler messages at the moment, since I'm about to go on an ten day holiday on September 15, and a bit tied up with work that has to be done before I leave. I'll come up with some English and American cases, but I can't promise I'll be able to before my trip; I don't have them in my head. And maybe someone else here can present some examples as well in the meantime. But I'll get back to you.
By the way, I'm going to print out your matrix and take it with me to try it on a wide range of suspects of my own -- just for the fun of it.
OK. You're off the boots, then. A coffee and a danish would do just fine... 
All the best
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 22
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, September 10, 2003 - 11:03 pm: | |
Sure Glenn,
No hurry at all. When you return is fine.
Hopefully this sort of matrix will structure our arguments a bit, especially if it identifies areas of common agreement and promotes focus on interesting areas. If approaching this case from a suspect driven direction a cogent argument for his non-detection should be baseline mandatory. I prefer to keep an open mind on a suspect for now as it tends to avoid the unconcious manipulation (and avoidance) of facts to suit a theory.
Enjoy your holiday - going anywhere exciting?
Regards
Neale |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 229
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, September 11, 2003 - 8:06 am: | |
Hi Neale,
"I prefer to keep an open mind on a suspect for now as it tends to avoid the unconcious manipulation (and avoidance) of facts to suit a theory."
Absolutely. I agree with you completely. Likewise the fact that the burden of evidence should not be taken lightly by those who stress a certain suspect, which I fear too often has been the case.
I do have some I find more likely than others (and a couple I choose to totally disregard) but I prefer to keep an open mind as well and have really no specific "favourite".
I'll go over some of the most interesting suspects though, with your matrix, "just for jolly wouldn't you". 
I think it could be quite fun, although I'm not suspect-oriented at all.
Nah, I'm going on my annual trip to a fishing-village in north of Denmark, called Skagen ("The Skaw"), mostly known for their art colonies at the end of the 19th century. One or a couple of weeks up there really gives a stressful soul a new set of batteries. Thank you, Neale.
All the best
Jack the Ri... uuups...
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 23
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 12:23 am: | |
Glenn,
I'll be interested to here your thought when you return.
Sorry to hear of the tragic assassination overnight;she seemed a very dynamic woman. Every act of terror like this diminishes us all.
Happy fishing
Neale |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 233
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 4:35 am: | |
Thank you for the condolences, Neale. Let's hope they find the killer this time (prime minister Olof Palme's murderer is still undetected 17 years later).
Think I'll better keep off the boats, though. I'm going on the trip because of my background as an art historian and to have a good rest. I'll eat a lot of fish, though.
See you when I get back, Neale.
All the best
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Robert Charles Linford
Chief Inspector
Username: Robert
Post Number: 736
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 7:11 am: | |
Hi Glenn
Let me add my commiserations on the assassination. I suppose the most optimistic outcome now would be if it turned out to be the work of a lone lunatic, rather than a terrorist.
Anyway, enjoy your holiday.
Robert |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 237
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 12:54 pm: | |
Thank you, Robert
And let's all keep our fingers crossed for our friend Stewart P Evans as well, and have a pint to his health.
Yes, actually, they are looking for a "lone lunatic". It wasn't a terrorist attack. Unfortunately there's a lot of individuals with mental problems stalking the streets in Sweden since the carrying-through of the disastrous "psyciatric reform" ten years ago, when people with serious problems -- schizofrenics, psycotics and paranoid individuals -- were thrown out of the asylums to "make it on there own". This is the social consequenses, and we've probably only seen the beginning of it. Later the same day as the Anna Lindh murder (the minister) a five year old girl was stabbed to death close to a school. The offender was -- naturally -- a psyciatric patient, who'd in his sick mind had decided to copy-cap the previous murder. Sad.
Thank you all for wishing me a nice trip.
All the best
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Robert Charles Linford
Chief Inspector
Username: Robert
Post Number: 738
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 1:59 pm: | |
Hi Glenn
Yes let's hope Stewart bounces back as quickly as possible.
Re the psychiatric cases, in the 80s in Britain the Government in its infinite wisdom closed a lot of the asylums and set the patients at large. This was called "care in the community". Trouble was, there wasn't much care and there wasn't much community - unless you call a shop doorway a community.
Robert |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 238
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 3:51 pm: | |
Hi Robert,
So you in England had a "psyciatric reform" as well, then.
It sounds like being constructed exactly the same way as ours. The motive here in Sweden for locking the asylums was "social and emphatic reasons"; that is, everyone, no matter how sick they were, should have their own apartment instead of being isolated from the rest of the world inside an asylum. And that was probably well-meant; there was indeed some who could be better off in the community. But for those who were too sick, and needed daily care, it became a social disaster. From "imprisonment" in an asylum they began living an isolated life in the "community". The economic funds and means weren't sufficient enough (which every bright mind could have figured out already from the start), and so the sick were left alone in their apartments; they stopped taking their medication, they got evicted, and became homeless beggars, and finally lost themselves in drug or alcohol addiction, and then into violence and criminality.
It is a a complete disaster, a naive desk product all created by politicians and bureaucrats. It's a terrible shame. What they didn't realize, was that some patients simply are too reliable of somebody taking care of them, and therefore need to be in an institution, as well as it should have been understood that there wouldn't be enough money to make it all work according to plan.
The result is hords of beggars and former mental patients in the city streets and more violence and criminality. So, in a way, I am not that surprised of the recent events -- unfortunately.
Well, well. We're having a EURO (or EMU) election on Sunday, and then I'll be off on my holiday. God knows I need it.
By the way, we have now totally slipped off the suspects thread.
All the best
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
Saddam
Unregistered guest
| | Posted on Friday, September 12, 2003 - 9:25 pm: | |
Thank goodness they never let "Kinky" (or should we say "Stinky") Kosminski out of the asylum! Imagine what would have happened if they'd allowed this puppy parole. He'd saunter down the hill from Leavesden, swaggering into his old Whitechaplian haunts. He'd stop for lunch at the first trash bin he'd see. Gargling the good stuff from fire hydrants, picking up bits of bread in the gutters, floating down a river of self-induced orgasms, Oh! Happy days are here again.
Saddam
|
Robert Charles Linford
Chief Inspector
Username: Robert
Post Number: 742
Registered: 3-2003
| | Posted on Saturday, September 13, 2003 - 10:07 am: | |
...and dancing beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free.
Robert |
Neale Carter
Sergeant
Username: Ncarter
Post Number: 25
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, September 14, 2003 - 11:32 pm: | |
Here in Victoria we have been down the same deinstitutionalisation path with almost uniformly disastrous results. Our politicians gave lip service to the notion it was better to care for their mentally ill "clients" (when did we become clients and stop being people) in the community but cost was all too obviously at the heart of it. Also the community wasn't really equipped or inclined to take on the job. Treatment of lunatics hasn't progressed in many ways since the 19th c.
Neale |
Glenn L Andersson
Inspector
Username: Glenna
Post Number: 259
Registered: 8-2003
| | Posted on Wednesday, September 24, 2003 - 3:55 pm: | |
Hi Neale! I'm back...
Well, what can I say. "Desinstitutionalisation" (my god, what a word!!!) seems to be an international craze. And the result can only be one when political schemes or social reforms spring out of ill-thought desk products and naive thinking.
Unfortunately, the rest of the society (as well as the sick people themselves) pays the ultimate price.
All the best, Neale
Glenn L Andersson
Crime historian, Sweden |
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